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Under
Chris Leavy’s leadership,
The Oppenheimer Value Fund
has risen from being an underachieving
fund to one of the top performing
large cap value funds over
the past three years. He told
Ticker what he believes it
takes to beat the peer group
year in and year out.
Q: In
2000 you took the fund under
your management. What changes
did you introduce since you
took over - in terms of strategy,
research, and so on?
A:
We viewed it as a clean sheet
of paper. This fund was managed
by Connecticut Mutual Insurance
Company. After that it was
managed with a quantitative
strategy. When we took over
in November 2000, we completely
changed it to fit our investment
process and we did it in about
30 days.
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Q: What
is your investment process?
A:
Our whole process is geared
around producing consistent
out-performance against the
value universe. That is why
we focus so much on picking
the best stocks in each sector.
So far, our process has delivered
on a consistent basis. We
think there is an interesting
proof statement about that.
Let us look at the Lipper
numbers measuring the performance
of this fund during the down
market and the up market.
To us, the nature of consistency
would be a fund that can demonstrate
compelling performance in
both kinds of periods. If
you look at our performance
“since manager inception,”
in November 2000, until the
markets bottomed, which we
define as September 2002,
the fund was down 10.2% on
an annualized basis, which
puts it in the 12th percentile
of the Lipper value universe.
In the up market, which we
define as September 2002 through
November 2003, there our total
return was 32.68%, which put
it in the 6th percentile of
the Lipper large-cap value
world. To us, that is really
the fruit of our stock selection
strategy, but also our portfolio
construction strategy. We
seek to find cheap stocks
that will produce significant
earnings gains over the next
few years.
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Q: Your
prospectus says that you look
for “good future earnings.”
How do you estimate future
earnings?
A:
Basically, we look at three
things. We try to assess revenue
growth prospects, potential
margin changes, and capital
management opportunities -
what will the management do
with the free cash flow.
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Q: How
many research people do you
have on staff internally?
Do you rely on Wall Street
research or in-house research?
A:
We have seven investment professionals
on the Value Team. This is
a combination of portfolio
managers who take a leading
role with other products on
the value team, as well as
research analysts who specialize
in particular sectors.
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Q:
So, do you start your process
by looking at sectors? Is
it a top-down approach?
A:
Our main goal is producing
consistent out-performance
against the large-cap value
asset class. Because consistency
is part of our goal, we think
the easiest thing to do on
a consistent basis is pick
the best stocks in each sector.
Then we will overweight or
underweight sectors to a modest
extent. If you were to look
at our performance attribution
since we took over the fund,
about 84% of the out-performance
has been generated by picking
the best value stocks in each
sector and about 16% of the
out-performance has come from
making the correct overweight
and underweight decisions
about the sectors.
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Q:
So, you tend to hover around
certain sectors?
A:
We have no perpetual biases
about which sectors we tend
to overweight or underweight.
The degree of the overweights
and underweights tends to
be modest, so that if we were
wrong about these decisions,
hopefully, the fund will still
perform well by picking the
best stocks in each sector.
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Q: How
does your screening process
work and how do you narrow
the stocks down to the ones
that make it to your portfolio?
A: The
first thing that we do is
to identify the value universe
of stocks. We start with the
whole stock market and we
recognize that our job is
to pick the best value stocks.
So, the first thing that we
do is identify the value universe.
There we look at the price
of stocks in relationship
to current earnings, future
earnings power and also current
book value.
“Our whole
process is geared around producing
consistent out-performance
against the value universe.
That is why we focus so much
on picking the best stocks
in each sector.”
about:
Christopher Leavy
Christopher Leavy joined
Oppenheimer Funds, Inc.
in September 2000 and
serves as head of the
Value Equity Investment
team. Prior to joining
OppenheimerFunds, he managed
money for Morgan Stanley
Asset Management. A Magna
Cum Laude graduate from
Trinity University with
a BA in economics, he
is also a Chartered Financial
Analyst. |
Q: Do
you use software screens for
that purpose?
A: It’s
a mixture. We use quantitative
tools to help us identify
which stocks represent the
value asset class. There is
also some subjective judgment
that is part of that process.
But again, how we pick stocks
within the value asset class
is the essence of what we
do.
Once we
have identified what the value
stocks are, we spend our time
trying to assess the long-term
earnings power of each company.
That is a dynamic process
that we do all the time. All
seven investment professionals
on the team perform fundamental
analysis.
We view
the value universe as the
cheaper half of the market.
If there are about 300 to
400 large-cap stocks, then
the value universe is somewhere
between 150 to 200 companies,
depending on where you draw
the line. Frankly, we feel
that we know those companies
pretty well and we tend to
own about 50 of them. The
real key to success is assessing
the long-term earnings power
of each of these companies.
We try to focus on the companies
that have the most compelling
earnings and cash flow prospects.
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Q: Why
then was your fund classified
as a blend fund?
A: Conceptually,
we manage this fund to pick
good value stocks, so we expect
this fund to be in the value
style box most of the time.
Recently,
the fund was just over the
line between value and blend,
on the blend side. There were
basically two stocks that
were responsible for that.
They were both satellite stocks
- GMH, which owns DirecTV,
and Echostar, which runs the
DISH network. In both cases,
at the time we purchased the
stocks, we believed they represented
compelling value. I should
add that since then those
stocks have worked well and
we have taken profits. However,
to go back to your question,
in the case of both companies,
when these companies gain
a subscriber, they tend to
run the expense of acquiring
that subscriber through the
income statement rather than
amortizing that expense over
the lifetime of the subscription.
As a result, since these companies
were in a growth mode and
were gaining subscribers very
quickly, and since there is
an expense associated with
adding each subscriber, that
narrowed the reported earnings
and cash flow of these companies.
As a result, the economic
value was clearly there, however,
given the way some services
measure it, that affected
our style box representation.
Since taking profits in these
stocks, we have returned to
the value style box in most
measurement services.
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Q: Do
you still own those stocks?
A:
We do not own GMH and we have
taken significant profits
from Echostar. So, these stocks
are not stocks that should
be bought today but it is
the answer to your question
about why we spent a little
bit of time just over the
value gridline.
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Q: You
can invest up to 25% of the
portfolio’s assets in foreign
issues and you actually have
some at the moment. What is
the weighting of foreign issues
in the fund at the moment
and how does that affect the
amount and nature of risk
the investor is exposed to?
A:
Usually, the foreign stocks
that we own, which are mainly
ADRs, tend to be about 10%
of the portfolio, give or
take a few percentage points.
One thing I want to mention
here though is that in many
cases, not all the cases,
we view the ADR as a technicality.
I think the big example of
that is one of our top holdings,
British Petroleum. BP is obviously
headquartered outside the
United States, but if you
look at the business of BP
it is very comparable to ChevronTexaco
or Exxon Mobil. It is just
that the CEO shows up at work
in a different country. So,
yes, technically speaking,
it is a foreign stock, but
is it really riskier then
other companies that are headquartered
in the US? We don’t think
so.
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Q: Aren’t
there any other issues that
come into play, such as exchange
rates?
A:
For any company that does
business outside the U.S.,
exchange rates are an issue.
This is true for multinationals
headquartered both in and
out of the U.S.
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Q: How
do you make a decision to
sell or trim a position? Can
you give me a few scenarios
that you have had in the past?
A:
There are three possible reasons.
The first is valuation. The
second reason would be that
the business fundamentals
deteriorate. The third reason
would be simply competition
for capital - perhaps the
stock is not a bad idea but
we find a better idea and
we need to make room for that
better idea. The extent to
which we trim a position would
depend on the extent to which
it meets the criteria for
the sell discipline. The more
that stock meets the criteria
for the sell discipline, the
more we sell.
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Q: Under
the policies of the portfolio,
you can invest in derivatives
and you can also use hedging
strategies. Have you taken
advantage of those terms at
any time?
A:
We do occasionally write covered
call options although historically
that has been to a limited
extent and currently we have
no covered call options written
in the portfolio.
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Q: What
have your best performing
holdings been and what was
the story there?
A:
As we discussed earlier, our
satellite stocks have done
well for us. Another example
would be McDonald’s. We were
interested in McDonald’s because
we thought same store sales
and margins would turn around
due to some of the new innovations
the company was implementing.
In addition, the company was
going to be more frugal with
their capital spending budget,
leaving more free cash flow
for shareholders. Given the
appreciation of the stock,
we have taken some profits.
While we are not recommending
investors buy the stock today,
it has clearly been a good
performer since we purchased
it earlier in 2003.
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Q: Have
you had disappointments with
certain equities?
A: Lockheed
Martin is a stock that we
have eliminated from the portfolio.
With the federal budget deficits
being where they are, much
greater than we thought they
would be, we were concerned
that would produce some headwind
on Lockheed Martin’s revenue
prospects looking out a few
years. It was a position that
we sold in pieces, a couple
of different times.
Jana Tchinkova
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