1) THE ILLUSION OF CORPORATE
BOND DIVERSIFICATION IN A
BALANCED PORTFOLIO
Introduction
Correlations between equity and corporate fixed
income indices have historically been highest during
times of negative equity returns, effectively turning
corporate bonds into an equity proxy and reducing the
benefits of diversification. Taxable municipals can be a
great alternative to corporate bonds in diversified
portfolios.
When constructing balanced portfolios, asset managers
often view each allocation as having a specific and
defined role within a portfolio. A generally accepted
view is that fixed income has two primary functions:
capital preservation and income.
Traditional “core” fixed income strategies are a common
choice for investors looking to accomplish the
aforementioned goals. Believers in this strategy often
highlight diversification among bond sectors as support
for their decision. However, core strategies, such as
those that track the popular Barclay’s US Aggregate
Bond Index, typically have significant exposure to
corporate bonds.
Figure 1 shows the percentage allocation to corporate
bonds in the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index over
the last ten years. In 2008, when volatility increased
substantially, benchmark interest rates were reduced to
essentially zero and corporate allocations were 17.7%.
Since then, corporate allocations have climbed steadily
up to 24.3% at year-end 2015. Many active core fixed
Figure 1
income managers have a strong incentive to overweight
corporates in times of low overall rates in an effort to
reach their yield targets or beat their benchmark – often
abandoning discipline by investing in lower-rated or
longer-dated bonds.
In a balanced portfolio, replacing corporate bonds, or a
percentage allocation to them, with taxable municipals
may be the optimal choice from a risk/return
perspective because it can provide:
(a) greater diversification benefit and improved capital
preservation, especially during volatile down equity
markets when it’s most important;
(b) superior credit quality; and
(c) favorable yields and relative returns.
Despite these benefits, the taxable municipal sector is
often overlooked by managers and excluded from
major indices. Community Capital Management (CCM)
sees the taxable municipal sector as an opportunity.
The Illusion of Corporate Bond
Diversification in a Balanced Portfolio
The theoretical benefit of a diversified portfolio comes
from distinct and independent movement of the
individual allocations as measured by correlation, so
that as value declines in one asset class, the losses can
be partially offset by gains in other asset classes.
Traditional wisdom suggests that a balanced equity and
fixed income portfolio consisting of primarily core
indexed products provides sufficient diversification for
smaller portfolios.
However, data indicates that the inclusion of corporate
bonds in balanced portfolios may be detrimental to the
intended diversification benefits. Corporate credit
exposure can actually reduce the diversification benefit
of fixed income securities in a mixed equity and bond
Source: Barclays Live
Community Capital Management | 877-272-1977 | www.ccmï¬xedincome.com | The Illusion of Corporate Bond Diversiï¬cation | p1
2) Figure 2
A higher correlation means that the
assets tend to move together, reducing
the benefit of diversification. Of the three
indices included in this data, the Barclays
US Corporate Investment Grade Index
had the highest correlation to equities in
seven out of the last ten years providing
the least diversification benefit from a
total portfolio perspective.
Source: eVestment Alliance (eA)
portfolio. This is especially true in times of high
volatility, when the diversification benefit is most
important. Correlations between equity and corporate
fixed income indices have historically been highest
during times of negative equity returns, effectively
turning corporate bonds into an equity proxy and
reducing the benefits of diversification.
Figure 2 shows the correlation
coefficients versus the S&P 500 Index
over the last ten years for three different
bond indices – the Barclays Taxable
Municipal Bond Index, the Barclays US
Aggregate Bond Index, and the Barclays
US Corporate Investment Grade Index.
Figure 3
Figure 3 shows the annualized monthly
returns for the same three indices, plus
the S&P 500, over the last ten years
during months in which the S&P 500 had a negative
return. The importance of diversification is magnified
when markets experience sharp down moves. When
equities fall, the ability of bond allocations to preserve
capital is most critical. In nine out of the last ten years,
the Barclays Taxable Municipal Bond Index generated
better performance, and hence better preserved
capital, during the S&P 500 down months, compared to
the Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade Index.
This result is not surprising due to the correlations
previously discussed.
Greater diversification benefit for a
mixed equity and fixed income portfolio
is represented by a lower correlation
coefficient between the two asset
classes.
Source: eVestment Alliance (eA)
Community Capital Management | 877-272-1977 | www.ccmï¬xedincome.com | The Illusion of Corporate Bond Diversiï¬cation | p2
3) Superior Credit Quality
Municipals have historically exhibited a stronger credit
profile than their corporate counterparts with similar
ratings, further strengthening the argument that taxable
municipals are a better choice to corporate bonds for
balanced portfolios.
yellow cells represent the debts that held the same rating
at the beginning and end of the period. The green cells
to the left represent the percent of debts upgraded, and
the red cells to the right represent the percent that were
downgraded.
Moody’s published a research report in July, 20151,
providing significant data surrounding the comparable
credit quality of corporate and municipal debt issuance.
Figures 4 and 5 show the average one-year transition
(upgrade/ downgrade) rates for municipal and
corporate issuers over the last 44 years.
The data indicates that, in aggregate, municipal bond
ratings were more stable over time and across all levels
maintaining their ratings at a much higher frequency
compared to similar quality corporates. In addition,
corporate bonds were downgraded more frequently
when compared to similar quality municipals.
Each cell shows the percentage of debts that held a given
row’s rating at the beginning of the period, and the
column’s rating at the end of the period. The diagonal
The Moody’s report also provided cumulative default
rates for corporate and municipal issuers over the
same 44-year time period.
Figure 4
Source: Moody’s Investors Service1
Figure 5
Source: Moody’s Investors Service1
US Municipal Bond Defaults and Recoveries, 1970-2014, Moody’s Investors Service
1
Community Capital Management | 877-272-1977 | www.ccmï¬xedincome.com | The Illusion of Corporate Bond Diversiï¬cation | p3
4) Figures 6 and 7 show the resulting data providing
further support that municipals have less credit risk than
comparable-quality corporate bonds. In fact, in every
time period for investment grade issues (yellow
highlight), municipal issuers had significantly lower
cumulative default rates.
The data shows a clear advantage, from a credit risk
perspective, to municipals as opposed to corporate
bonds in balanced portfolios. This is supported by
favorable metrics related to ratings transitions as
well as cumulative default rates over an extended
period of time.
In addition, Moody’s notes that municipal ratings
generally had greater levels of accuracy than
corporate ratings in differentiating defaulters from
non-defaulters.
Figure 6
Source: Moody’s Investors Service1
Figure 7
Source: Moody’s Investors Service1
The cumulative default ratings over time were higher across the board, at every rating level,
for like-rated corporate issues when compared to municipal issues.
Community Capital Management | 877-272-1977 | www.ccmï¬xedincome.com | The Illusion of Corporate Bond Diversiï¬cation | p4
5) Favorable Yields and Relative Returns
Taxable municipals are often overlooked by market
participants despite yields that are comparable and
often better than corporate bonds.
Figure 8 shows the monthly yield to worst for the
Barclays Taxable Municipal Bond Index and the Barclays
US Corporate Investment Grade Index, respectively,
over the last ten years. The Barclays Taxable Municipal
Bond Index generated a superior yield advantage
compared to the Barclays US Corporate Investment
Grade Index in every month since 2010 and in the
majority of months over the last ten years.
Figure 9 shows the annual total returns for the same
three indices mentioned earlier over the last ten years.
The simple average returns over this period are
comparable between the Barclays Taxable Municipal
Bond Index and the Barclays US Corporate Investment
Grade Index, with the Barclays Taxable Municipal Bond
Index outperforming by 0.76% with an average return of
6.24%. During the months when equity returns were
negative (see figure 3), the difference in return was
magnified considerably – the Barclays Taxable Municipal
Bond Index generated an average return of 7.40%
compared to 0.38% for the Barclays US Corporate
Investment Grade Index.
Figure 8
The perceived yield
advantage of corporate
bonds over municipals is a
misconception. In the last
ten years, overall, taxable
municipals generated
favorable income and
total return.
Source: eA and Barclays Live
Figure 9
Source: eA and Barclays Live
Community Capital Management | 877-272-1977 | www.ccmï¬xedincome.com | The Illusion of Corporate Bond Diversiï¬cation | p5
6) Conclusion
There are consistent themes looking ahead into 2016
and beyond. The most common appears to be that the
beginning of the Fed raising rates signals a significant
policy shift, introducing new variables and uncertainties
into the market. As a result, expectations for 2016 are
muted while volatility is expected to increase. Questions,
risks, and market considerations include the timing and
pace of follow-up rate increases, bond market liquidity,
junk bond deterioration, depressed commodity prices,
and international instability.
With that forecast in mind, this report is especially timely.
Relative to corporate bonds, taxable municipals have
historically offered: (a) greater diversification and capital
preservation, especially during volatile down equity
markets when it’s needed most; (b) superior credit
quality; and (c) favorable yields and relative returns.
As part of a balanced portfolio, the taxable municipal
sector can offer investors an ideal surrogate, or
complement, to corporate bond allocations.
Community Capital Management | 877-272-1977 | www.ccmï¬xedincome.com | The Illusion of Corporate Bond Diversiï¬cation | p6
7) About CCM
CCM is a privately-held registered investment advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Headquartered in
Weston, Florida with offices in Charlotte, North Carolina and Boston, Massachusetts, the firm was founded in 1998 and
manages over $2 billion in assets. CCM’s flagship intermediate fixed income impact investing strategy is available as a
separate account or via a mutual fund (CRA Qualified Investment Fund). For more information, please visit
www.ccmfixedincome.com or call 877-272-1977.
This white paper reflects the analysis and opinions of Community Capital Management as of February 2016. Because
market and economic conditions are often subject to rapid change, the analysis and opinions provided may change without
notice. The analysis and opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice. References to particular securities, or
types of securities, are only for the limited purpose of illustrating general market or economic conditions, and are not
recommendations to buy or sell a security or an indication of the Community Capital Management’s holdings on behalf of
its clients. Statement of fact are from sources considered reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their
completeness or accuracy. Although historical data is no guarantee of future results, these insights may help you
understand our investment management philosophy. All investments are subject to certain risks. This publication is for
investors and investment consultants in the products available through Community Capital Management and its affiliates.
Various account minimums or other eligibility qualifications apply depending on the investment strategy or vehicle.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss.
Glossary:
Balanced Portfolio: a method of portfolio allocation designed to provide both income and capital appreciation
while avoiding excessive risk.
Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: covers the US investment grade fixed rate bond market, with index
components for government and corporate services, mortgage pass-thru securities and asset-backed securities.
Barclays Taxable Municipal Bond Index: a rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the longterm taxable bond market.
Barclays US Corporate Investment Grade Index: an unmanaged index consisting of publicly issued US Corporate
and specified foreign debentures that are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and meet
specific maturity, liquidity, and quality requirements.
Correlation Coefficient: a correlation coefficient is a number between -1 and 1 that measures the co-movement
(linear association) between two random variables. The lower the correlation coefficient, the greater the
diversification benefits.
eVestment Alliance (eA): eA provides a flexible suite of easy-to-use, cloud-based solutions to help the institutional
investing community identify and capitalize on global investment trends, better select and monitor investment
managers and more successfully enable asset managers to market their funds worldwide.
Standard & Poor’s (S&P 500): the S&P 500 is an index of 500 of the most widely held stocks on the New York
Stock Exchange.
Yield to Worst: the lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting.
Community Capital Management | 877-272-1977 | www.ccmï¬xedincome.com | The Illusion of Corporate Bond Diversiï¬cation | p7